Let me make things simpler for you. Let us assume there are 100 eligible voters who will be voting in 2019 General elections.
- So, according to the Forbes report 2017 (July) 73 people have faith in current BJP government.
Government trust levels are generally determined by whether or not people consider their government stable and reliable, if it’s able to protect its citizens from risk and whether it can effectively deliver public services.
- More than 60 voters are currently living in BJP (BJP alliance) ruled states.
Going by the Census 2011 data, the NDA states’ population tally (740.1 million) is now nearly seven times that of the states ruled by the Congress and its allies (107.2 million).
Considering the mean of 73 and 60, more than 66 people are going to vote for BJP. Removing another 6 people, considering political uncertainty and inconsistency, atleast 60 people are going to vote for BJP.
In 2014, BJP got 31.3% Votes and got 51.9% seat share in the house [Interestingly, Congress with 19.5% votes got just 8.1% seat share in the house]. In order to become the official opposition party in India, a party must gain 10% of the seats (54 seats) in the LokSabha; however, the Congress was unable to attain this number. Considering political mathematics, absence of official opposition and Modi’s increased popularity, even with 50 people (50% vote share) will result in 70% seat share (380 seats out of 543) for BJP+ (NDA).
So even a Mahagatbandhan (with lack of official opposition) is unlikely to turn things around!